Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has closed the gap on the SNP as new polling shows support for the SNP and Labour declining.
New polling from More in Common suggests the SNP would be returned to power on 7 May, but with 59 seats, down on 2021.
This is also short of the 65-seat majority First Minister John Swinney would regard as a mandate for an independence referendum.
Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice says that based on the latest polling both Reform UK and Scottish Labour would have 19 seats each, with the Lib Dems on 13, Conservatives on 11, and Greens on 8.
Such an outcome would result in the worst result for Scottish Labour in the history of devolution and it has sparked more calls within the party for Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer to step down immediately for it to have any chance of success on 7 May.
Former deputy leader Angela Rayner is said to be poised to mount a challenge. Despite being sacked over her tax affars, her working class credentials are seen as more credible than those made by toolmaker’s son Sir Keir and she may be a more popular choice among voters north of the border.
Current deputy Lucy Powell and the Defence Secretary John Healey are other potential candidates, while Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham’s chances have been scuppered by the party’s decision to prevent his standing in the forthcoming Gorton and Denton by-election.
That contest comes a day before a Scottish Labour conference which could be a highly-charged event if the party suffers a serious defeat.
Despite the hunger for change at the top, some in Labour circles believe a leadership contest could plunge the party into further in-fighting and prove even more damaging to its prospects.
Malcolm Offord, leader of Reform UK Scotland, recently declared that the Scottish election is a two-horse race and this is the second consecutive poll to confirm this following last week’s survey by YouGov.
He said: “Reform UK Scotland represents hardworking Scots who believe that their efforts should be valued, rewarded, and want better outcomes for their families and communities.
“Our message is clear, consistent, and gaining momentum. We are reaching people who know Scotland can do better. This is their moment to demand change, restore ambition, and put Scotland back on a path to prosperity and pride once again.”
On the constituency vote the SNP’s support has fallen by 13 points, but it still retains a 16-point lead on 35% which would see it comfortably returned to power in May.
The poll shows Reform UK in second place on 19%, with Scottish Labour on 18% (down 4 points on 2021). The Conservatives are beind on 11% (down 11 points), the Lib Dems on 10% (up 3 points) and the Greens on 5% (up 4 points).
At the 2021 election the SNP won most of its seats in the constituency vote with only two of the 64 on the regional list.
However, the new polling suggests Reform UK is closing the gap on the regional list vote. The SNP remains ahead on 25% (down 15 points on 2021), but Reform UK is now on 20%.
Scottish Labour is on 19% (up 1 point), the Lib Dems on% (up 13 points), the Conservatives on 12% (down 12 points), and the Greens on 9% (up 1 point).
More in Common said: “The SNP’s fall in support has not cost the party its lead among pro-independence Scots – it still dominates with more than three in five pro-independence voters (61%).
“Meanwhile, Reform UK has emerged as the frontrunner among Scottish voters who oppose independence, securing 31% of the vote compared to Labour’s 23%.
“The polling suggests that the independence debate could play a decisive role in handing victory to the SNP despite their decline in support, with the nationalist vote united behind the party while the anti-independence vote is split across four parties.”
source