Scotland’s housing emergency, soon to enter its third year, risks getting worse unless the government takes decisive action, according to a trade group.
A new report from sector body Homes for Scotland (HFS) shows that housing completions could fall to as low as 5,000 per annum by 2031 as a direct result of failing planning policy.
This compares with the 19,797 homes completed in 2024, the latest calendar year for which statistics are available.
Furthermore, this figure does not include the impact of wider regulation which continues to make it increasingly difficult and more expensive to build the range of homes required to ensure the country’s social wellbeing and economic success.
The report highlights that a lack of land coming through the planning system to maintain a delivery pipeline that comes anywhere close to meeting Scotland’s housing need.
HFS attributes this to the introduction of National Planning Framework 4 in 2023 which has seen 60% of Local Development Plans (LDPs), which guide where new development should take place, become out of date.
It currently takes about four years from submitting a planning application to achieving delivery. HFS says this means the number of homes being built will continue on a downwards trajectory and that it could be 2033 before homes start coming through again.
HFS director of planning Kevin Murphy said: “Let’s be clear, the housing emergency has been decades in the making. Whilst we have welcomed the principle of the recently announced More Homes Scotland agency, this won’t be fully operational until 2028/29. We just don’t have that time to lose.
“Frustratingly, this new report only confirms the specific concerns we have been expressing to Ministers and officials since before NPF4 was introduced.
“However, rather than the Scottish Government addressing these and taking the necessary corrective action, we find ourselves with yet another consultation which describes “a living pipeline of land” with planning permission being “in place for at least 164,000 homes” which have not yet been built.
“As our research shows, this simply isn’t the case. Such narrative belies the wide-ranging, lengthy, complex and costly challenges that the home building sector has to face in delivering much-needed homes of all tenures.
“The truth is planning policy, particularly transition from NPF4 to LDPs, is exacerbating rather than addressing the fundamental problem which lies at the heart of the matter: the chronic undersupply of effective land on which to build homes.
“I sincerely hope Ministers and officials ensure positive rhetoric translates into effective action before we see any more investment diverted elsewhere in the UK and lose any more of our SME home building base which is now at its lowest level in 20 years.”
Ms Mcallan has described the new More Homes Scotland agency as “a natural progression to everything else that we’ve been working on in response to the housing emergency”.
Work to tackle the crisis during her tenure has included a funding boost and multi-year certainty for the Affordable Housing Supply Programme (AHSP), as well as cash for councils to buy family homes to house some of the 10,000 children stranded in temporary accommodation.
The Scottish government estimates that the agency will cost around £2m to set up. It aims for the new body to be operating by the 2027-28 financial year, and Ms McAllan says she is “confident” this can be achieved.
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