Inflation ticks back up as food prices hit home

That means price rises have accelerated from the rate of 1.4pc in Ireland in the 12 months to June. Prices increased by 0.5pc between May and June.

Energy prices are estimated to have fallen by 0.2pc in the month and to be down 1.8pc over the 12 months to June 2025.

Food prices are estimated to have risen by 0.3pc in the last month and by 4.3pc in the last 12 months. The HICP excluding energy and unprocessed food is estimated to have gone up by 1.9pc since June 2024.

Inflation remains dramatically below the double digit levels seen in the aftermath of the Covid pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that triggered a wave of European Central Bank (ECB) rate hikes. The ECB has indicated that it sees inflation as effectively contained but higher food prices are impacting consumer sentiment in Ireland, recent surveys show.

However, data due on Tuesday is now expected to show euro-area inflation accelerated over the past month, the first time it has done so since the start of the year.

A Bloomberg survey fond economists expect annualised inflation in the euro area to come in at 2pc when it is announced on Tuesday, up from last month’s 1.9pc rate.

An underlying measure that strips out volatile elements like energy is tipped to remain at 2.3pc when Eurostat publishes data on Tuesday.

ECB chief economist Philip Lane said last week that the process of bringing inflation back to target is “largely completed”.

ECB staff see inflation settling at 2pc in the medium term, following a dip below that level in 2026.

Data on Friday showed inflation inched up in France and Spain in the last month.

Meanwhile, figures on Monday from market research firm Kantar showed grocery price inflation at 5.3pc on June 15 compared with the same 12-week end period last year.

Emer Healy, Kantar business development director, said higher prices are affecting both sales performance and shopper behaviour.

“As grocery bills rise alongside other household expenses, Irish consumers are cautious with their spending and actively seek out promotions to secure the best value,” she said.

Evidence of shoppers tightening their budgets includes a shift to own-label products, which have overtaken brands in value share of the total market at 47.3pc, compared to brands with a 47.1pc value share.

Separate CSO data on Monday shows the volume of retail sales decreased by 0.6pc in May and increased by 1.6pc in the last 12 months.

Excluding motor trades, the monthly volume of retail sales was up by 0.5pc in May.

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