Cost of Christmas dinner to rise as grocery inflation remains elevated

Grocery price inflation was 6pc in the four weeks to the end of November, according to new figures form Worldpanel by Numerator.

The latest rate of grocery inflation is down slightly from last month when it was 6.5pc, but will be little consolation to consumers hit by surging costs to fill a shopping trolley.

Research from Worldpanel, which used to be called Kantar, shows that the cost of providing Christmas dinner will be marginally dearer than last year.

It cost €31.22 last year to buy the food for a family of four but this year the figure will be€32.28.

Retailers have been putting an emphasis on own-label ranges and promotional lines to help people manage their household budgets.

Business development director at Worldpanel by Numerator Emer Healy said: “What we’re seeing is essentials like vegetables going down in price, but an increase in turkey and seasonal sweet biscuits, which is nudging up the overall price of the Christmas dinner.

“But for many shoppers, festive indulgence remains a priority. For example, despite chocolate prices rising 13.5pc compared to last year, almost one in four of households still picked up a selection box in November.”

Researchers found that consumers are trying to buy goods based on a mix of quality and value rather than chasing the lowest price when stocking up on festive favourites.

Ms Healy said: “Christmas is no longer on the horizon, it’s just days away and we’re seeing the final surge in shopper behaviour.”

She said this was the time when convenience, speed and last-minute decision-making dominated.

“With busy social calendars, shoppers are prioritising quick wins with ready-to-go gifts, easy meal solutions and anything that saves them time.

“For brands and retailers, this is the critical window of opportunity to capture those indulgent impulse purchases, making sure they are well stocked with big-day favourites and can guarantee availability.”

The findings show that brands are enjoying a festive boost as shoppers indulge themselves a bit.

Ms Healy said: “At this time of year, shoppers aren’t necessarily looking at price. While promotions play a role, this season is about more than discounts.”

She said many shoppers wanted to indulge a bit, despite cost-of-living pressures, and this was reflected in consumer choices, including choosing more brands to enjoy over the Christmas period.

The latest data shows that brands hold the highest value share seen since January 2025. Close to half of shoppers’ spending is on brands.

An additional €96m is being spent on branded ranges compared with last year. An extra €2.1m was spent on branded seasonal chocolate compared to last year.

Own labels had strong growth over the last 12 weeks, up 5.3pc, with shoppers spending an additional €82.6m on these ranges versus last year.

Premium own-label ranges continue to see strong growth, up 10.7pc, with shoppers spending an additional €13.8m on these ranges compared to last year.

Online shopping continued to grow, at a significantly faster rate compared to last month.

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