US president Donald Trump. Photo: Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP
August 1 used to mark the start of the “silly season”, when there’s a dearth of serious news and the media has to resort to stories about sightings of sharks or moving statues.
This year, in complete contrast, August 1 marks the deadline set by US president Donald Trump for a trade deal between America and the EU, or else he imposes a 30pc tariff on imports from Europe.
A deal has now been done on the basis of a 15pc baseline tariff. While the details remain scanty this is in line the agreement reached between the US and Japan last week. There is likely to be further back and forth as the two sides quibble over what is and isn’t in the deal in the coming days.
Mr Trump may not get his way on something else – a cut in US interest rates. The Federal Reserve is due to decide on Wednesday whether to leave rates unchanged at 4.25pc-4.5pc for a fifth consecutive meeting, as it waits for more clarity on the outlook for inflation in particular.
The other “season” that kicks off this week is Irish banks’ earnings season, which begins on tomorrow with Bank of Ireland. It will be followed by PTSB on Thursday and AIB on Friday.
These should be relatively jolly affairs, given the announcement last week that gross lending amounted to €3.4bn in Q2 2025, which was up 18pc year on year. Davy is forecasting gross mortgage lending of €14bn this year, which would represent 11pc growth.
Denis McGoldrick of Goodbody is predicting that capital distributions and loan growth will be key areas of focus for the banks in their interim results. “We are forecasting that AIB Group will announce an interim dividend – their first since the global financial crisis – of 13c per share and 26c per share for Bank of Ireland.
“Meanwhile at PTSB, we expect confirmation that the updated internal ratings-based mortgage models have been submitted to the regulator which we believe could release as much as c.€200m in capital, once approved. This would allow the bank to begin directed buybacks with the Irish State, increase loan growth ambitions and pursue M&A opportunities which may arise in the non-bank sector, in particular.”
Results to watch out for include Euronext, the stock market operator, which will publish its Q2 figures on Thursday, after markets close. IAG, the owner of Aer Lingus, will announce its Q2 results on Friday
The Central Statistics Office will have tourism figures for June, which will be closely watched given the recent downward trajectory of visitor numbers.
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