Adjusted earnings will rise to at least €3.6bn by 2030 from €2.72bn this year, the Italian carmaker said yesterday.
The outlook implies a slower earnings growth rate than what management offered during their last capital markets day three years ago.
“Investors are likely to interpret a downshift in Ebit growth from prior history,” said Tom Narayan, an equity analyst at RBC Capital Markets.
Ferrari fell as much as 16pc, the steepest drop since the company listed shares in Milan in January 2016. The stock, trading of which was temporarily halted due to volatility, is now down 14pc for the year.
Expectations were high going into the investor day. Analysts had turned increasingly positive on Ferrari in recent weeks, with some anticipating a lowering of EV targets that would supercharge earnings.
In a September note, analysts at Deutsche Bank said they expected Ferrari to unveil ambitious mid-term targets, citing prospects for the limited-edition F80 supercar.
Ferrari offered incremental upgrades to its outlook for this year, calling for net revenue to equal or exceed €7.1bn, up from prior guidance for €7bn or more. The company bumped up its projection for adjusted Ebitda by 1.5pc from at least €2.68bn previously.
For 2030, Ferrari’s adjusted Ebitda margin of over 40pc compares to analysts’ average estimate of 42pc, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Michael Dean.
The projections “look light versus high expectations”, Dean said in a note.
“Targeted free cash of about €8bn over the five years is also low versus our €9bn expectation. Shareholder returns of roughly €7bn split between dividends and buybacks look disappointing too.”
Ferrari’s stock was up just over 2pc for the year through Wednesday, as the company has been feeling the impact of the broader luxury downturn, tariff uncertainty and slowing sales in China.
Earlier yesterday, Ferrari scaled back its plans to make electric vehicles, even as it unveiled elements of its first EV, the Elettrica, which is set to debut next year. All-electric models will make up about 20pc of its line-up by 2030, down from a previous target of 40pc set in 2022.
Other carmakers, including Porsche AG and Mercedes-Benz Group AG, have struggled with the EV transition, as wealthy buyers balk at switching over to plug-ins.
Like its peers, Ferrari is also trying to regain momentum in China, where its sales have stagnated.
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